![]() ![]() Some quick spreadsheet analysis shows that P5 - P4 > 0 for all values of p between 0 and 0.50866 - that is, if the probability of an individual bet winning is 0.49134 or greater - and P5 - P4 0.49134, so in that case, the 5-step is better.Īlso, I was assuming whatever leftover is not used of the $800 would not be utilized. ![]() P = the probability of a specific bet losing Let P5 = the probability of the eight 5-step Martingales winning, and P4 = the probability of the four 4-step martingales winning. I don't know about Sally, but here's what I get:Īssuming you are only interested in which is more likely to win: eight consecutive 4-step Martingales, or four consecutive 5-step ones, the 5-step winning 4 times is always more likely (except, of course, when the probability of each individual bet winning is either 0 or 1).ĮDIT: Say, here's a crazy idea how about I calculate the probabilities for the question you actually asked - eight 5-step Martingales vs four 4-step ones ![]() Drooling over the prospects of Sally's math proof. ![]()
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